1. Miami Heat (51-15)
The Heat enter the season as the most talented team in the eastern conference and arguably the most talented team in the NBA. With LeBron/Wade/Bosh having a year of playing together under their belt and adding Battier to a much better than you think supporting cast, this team should rile off 50+ wins, only losing when they take nights off to rest.
2. Chicago Bulls (49-17)
Derrick Rose. This team is built for the regular season and very easily could surpass the 50 win total and be a 1 seed over the Heat. They HAVE to get a better season out of Boozer, he’s just too good a ball-player to put up back-to-back seasons like what he did last year. Adding Rip Hamilton fills a massive void and allows Rose’s dribble drives to have a SG waiting for a 15-foot kick-out shot. The question is, will Rose allow other players on his team to shine. The one critique I have with him is trying to be a too high-volume shooter and not deferring to his cast (could be a reason why Boozer underperformed). Regardless, this team will shine btwn Christmas and June.
3. New York Knicks (45-21)
Am I the only one who thinks that adding Baron Davis will be huge? That dude WANTS to play for a contender with great crowds; Knicks are contenders and play at MSG. Once healthy, he will lead an offense loaded with Melo and Amar’e. Everybody knows what kind of offensive numbers this team will put up. With Chandler locking down the paint, this team will be much better defensively than they were last year. Landry Fields is a capable defender on the perimeter and Toney Douglas is an above average defender at PG. This team is poised for a big run in 2011-2012 and can make some real waves in the playoffs as well.
4. Boston Celtics (43-23)
The only team in the NBA with 4 all-stars and I have them 2nd in their own DIVISION? This team is paper-thin and very injury prone with their age. Jermaine O’Neal is good to get hurt for a few weeks and Pierce is already going to miss some games to start the year. This team is one injury to Rondo or KG away from potentially an 8th seed or even missing post-season play. This team will be extremely challenged given the compact-season and back-to-back-to-back’s that will be thrown there way. They also have a stretch in April where they play 12 games in 20 days that could be a huge issue for this team. However, if they are healthy come June and make it through the season unscathed, this team could be quite dangerous.
5. Philadelphia 76ers (39-27)
This team will surprise a lot of people who aren’t paying attention. They are young, they are deep, and they stay healthy. They return their entire core and according to people involved, Elton Brand looks great in camp and looks to build on his rebound season of last year. Jrue Holiday, at a mere 21 years of age, looks like he could take a step further towards being an elite PG this year. This team plays tough defense for its head coach and while likely end in the top 5, certainly top 10. The 76ers have the strongest bench of any team in the NBA and their second unit (which will be called on a lot given a compact season) will possess a significant advantage over other teams second units. Given their lack of interior toughness (Spencer Hawes is softer than tissue paper), they won’t have a chance to threaten any of the real contenders, but they should have an excellent regular season.
6. Indiana Pacers (39-27)
This is one of my favorite teams to watch this year. I talked about them in my previous post in regards to their potential for a breakout year. The David West signing is a sneaky good signing that will give them some stability at the 4 with Roy and Jeff Foster rotating in the 5. Darren Collison is a name I expect a lot of people to start to know as the year goes along. Danny Granger, if he can return to his ’09-’10 form, can be a 20+ ppg scorer and they have some depth with Hansborough/West, Foster/Hibbert, and Collison/George Hill. Paul George is poised for a HUGE sophomore campaign and given the fact that the 3-pt shot is something that improves in players 2nd year, he could be real dangerous at the 2 spot for them with his size.
7. Orlando Magic (35-31)
I don’t see this team finishing with Dwight Howard and even with him I think they are going to struggle. I know most “experts” have predicted them in the top 4, but I just don’t see it. They aren’t deep, Howard is unhappy, they are weak at the 4, and Hedo has seen his scoring efficiency decrease rapidly in the prior few years. This team will struggle with elite teams that run and gun them (think Knicks) and they are absolutely screwed when Dwight is traded as Daniel Orton (essentially a rookie) will be taking over at center. I love Ryan Anderson and JJ Reddick but both need to basically be wide open to be effective players so they are neutralized if this team struggles. I expect a weak season out of Orlando and depending on when Dwight gets traded, they may miss out completely on the playoffs.
8. Atlanta Hawks (33-33)
They lost their best bench player and Kirk Hinrich is going to miss a bunch of the season. They are going to take a step back. Tracy McGrady is not at all what Jamal Crawford was for them. Josh Smith does look explosive in pre-season and Joe Johnson has to have a somewhat bounce back year after last years disappointing numbers. A lot of what this team is depends on if Jeff Teague can continue to be as good as what he showed in the playoffs last year. This team has the potential to win 40+ games and vie for a 4/5 seed, but I just don’t see how they are going to stack up in a condensed season where you need to go to your bench a lot. AKA Tracy McGrady is going to be a big part of this team. Not good news if you’re a Hawks fan.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35)
One of the best defensive teams in the eastern conference with just no offense. A healthy Bogut and a bounce back year from Brandon Jennings could help them out a lot, but they are thin and considering Shuan Livingston is backing up Jennings, a Jennings injury may be enough to injury Livingston as well leaving them with no point guard. I’m a bigger fan of most than Delfino who will be there wing player, but his lack of athleticism really limits the impact he can have on games. If his shot is on, he can be dangerous, but a bad day shooting the ball basically eliminates him from the game. Stephen Jackson is a headcase who is lobbying for a new contract and will certainly let that impact his game, leaving them with limited production from the off-guard. If things bounce right for them, they could sneak into the playoffs, but I don’t see it. They will definitely look like a playoff team some nights, however, leaving a lot of people scratching their head.
10. Detroit Pistons (27-39)
What a mess this team is. I would love to go out on a limb and predict them to make the playoffs, but they are just a collection of a lot of the same talent. Rodney Stucky isn’t a true PG, and they lack interior toughness (unless you count the corpse of Ben Wallace who YES is still there..) Monroe could be poised for a big season, but I’m not sure that it doesn’t go in vein considering the play of the rest of the team. I think they will win more games than people think purely because of their depth. Other than that, they are going to be frustrating to watch if you’re a Piston fan.
11. Washington Wizards (23-43)
Here’s another team I would have loved to place higher given the breakout ability of John Wall, but I just can’t do it given the lack of depth all around him. Outside of McGee and Nick Young, there are no real NBA quality starters. Blatche never developed and the rest of that team would all be bench players for any other team. It’s going to take a ginormous effort from Wall to get this team to 33 wins (8th seed range) and given the fact they had no training camp/limited pre-season, I don’t see it. They are destined for another lottery pick.
12. New Jersey Nets (21-45)
No Brook Lopez to start the season = a rough season for NJ. They could get off to a VERY poor start despite giving up a 2nd round pick in 2050 to get Okur. D-Will’s attitude will determine how well they tread water until Lopez’s return, but given that he’s got no help around him, it may not matter. I still think they end up getting Howard and winning some games in March and April before the season ends; garnering them some wins, but they will not be in the hunt for anything. If they don’t get Howard, they could be the worst team in basketball come the seasons end.
13. Charlotte Bobcats (14-52)
Kemba Walker is about the only reason you will want to watch this team play. Tyrus Thomas had probably the best per-minute year of any Bobcat last season but still only managed 21 mpg (credit: Hollinger). If they get him some minutes and Walker turns into a ROY candidate, they could put together a few wins given the potential for Gerald Henderson to become a solid wing scorer, but they are likely destined for an awful season and a lottery pick. This team will focus their season on figuring out what young talent they can build with and try and figure out the future direction of this team.
14. Toronto Raptors (14-52)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers (9-57)
I don’t think even I can stand to watch these two teams play. DeMar DeRozan could be worth watching and may become the leading scorer for the Raptors if Bargnani doesn’t take those honors, but these two teams are largely unwatchable. Kyrie Irving can’t expect to do much given who he’ll be passing to and that if he plays even remotely well, he will see double teams at no risk of leaving anyone open that can hit a shot. Toronto has a couple nice young guys with DeRozan and Ed Davis, but Davis isn’t ready for primetime yet given the fact that he looks like he eats 1 yogurt a day and nothing else. Cleveland has just about nobody on their roster that will be there in 3 years outside of Irving and Tristan Thompson. If they’re smart, they’ll move Varejao to a team that needs a tough scrappy interior defender (See: Philly) for a young player or pick (Which Philly has a ton of).
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