With Week 16 upon us, I’ve chosen a few key games to talk about and given my predictions (ATS) for the rest.
Oakland @ Kansas City (-1.5)
Hard to believe that Kansas City is involved in a game that matters for them in week 16 given their season, but it’s true. With their upset of the year win last week over the Green Bay Packers, they are full of confidence and believe they can beat anyone. That is a dangerous thing to go against in the NFL. The last time these two played, it was a 28-0 shutout up in Oakland in Carson Palmers first game as a Raider (where he combined with Kyle Boller to throw for a franchise single-game high of 6 interceptions *insert Colin Cowherd birthday wazoo sound here*). Carson has clearly gotten better and this will be a much different game than that was. Also, KC had Matt Cassell and Jackie Battle was still in the pan stage of his ‘flash in the pan’. Denarius Moore has had a game back to get back into the flow of things and is a great weapon when healthy (no really, he is). Bush is a tough back to bring down and KC could experience a let down game here for sure. Tamba Hali is quietly having a great season and could pose some real issues to the Oakland offensive line, but the Raiders are clearly committed to running the ball with Bush and it was shown last week that you can run on KC (Grant ran for 66 yds on 12 carries) which will slow down that pass rush. I’ll take Oakland to win comfortably in the upset here.
Oakland: 27
Kansas City: 13
NY Giants @ NY Jets (-3)
This is a true road test for the New York Football Giants. No?.. No?.. Ok fine. This is absolutely a huge game for both teams, though. The Jets have far outplayed the Giants when it comes to Met Life stadium with a 6-1 record at home (only loss to New England) while the Giants have a mediocre 3-4 record (only 3 home wins coming v. Buffalo, Miami, and St. Louis). It makes sense given the conditions there and the styles of each football team. The teams are fairly evenly matched and have both been playing to the level of their competition throughout this season. Usually in that case you take the “more desperate” team and the team with the better QB. Both of those would be the NYG given the elimination possibilities and Eli’s play this year, however, I still think the New York Jets come out with a close win. Look for a big game from Dustin Keller here.
New York Jets: 27
New York Giants: 24
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5)
Dallas is scared. Or at least Jerry Jones is. Philadelphia absolutely dismantled them up at Lincoln Financial in their meeting on Oct. 30th. LeSean McCoy ran all over the Cowboys to the tune of 185 yards and 2 scores. It should also be noted that Vick had one of his best games of the season (QB rating of 129.9) and that was despite Ware having a huge impact (11 tackles, 4 sacks). It should also be noted the Cowboys had Demarco Murray as well. That being said, the Cowboys are as good an offense as anyone when they are on, and with Miles, Dez, and Laurent all healthy, that could be often. The Eagles defense has been OK this season, but Asomugha hasn’t had the impact Philadelphia fans thought he would and Asante is a bit banged up, which could create some issues for the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball. On the fast track of Cowboy Stadium, this game looks like it’s going to be a high-scoring affair where the team with the ball last wins. I think that team with the ball last will be the Eagles and they’ll take a win in Big D setting up a showdown between themselves and the Giants in New York in the final week of the regular season, while the Eagles continue clinging on hope of a playoff berth.
Philadelphia Eagles: 35
Dallas Cowboys: 31
Chicago @ Green Bay (-13.5)
Green Bay is coming off a loss where they were out-couched, out-played, and out-classed. While Rodgers may have said he was happy for Romeo, any Packer fan knows that Rodgers does not take losing lightly. He is pissed off. And it hasn’t helped that the media has completely jumped off the bandwagon putting into question if the Packers can even GET to a Superbowl whereas a week ago they were 19-0, best team ever. Bulaga is out for this game as is Greg Jennings. Both are huge losses for this offense. With Clifton back in practice Wednesday, it’ll be interesting to see if he can play allowing Newhouse to move to RT and most importantly keeping EDS off the field as a starter. Packers look to get back RB J. Starks and ILB D. Bishop which are both big additions. On the other end, Chicago is going to be starting Luke McCown (I guess based off his great game v. the Jets in wk 2 when he was on Jax – seriously look at his numbers, his QB rating was 1.8 and no that wasn’t a typo). With no Forte and Marion Barber falling out of favor with Lovie Smith (not quite sure why, it’s obviously God’s fault he ran out of bounds and fumbled. TEEEBOOOWWW), they are going to turn to Kahlil Bell. Johnny Knox is on IR with a devastating neck injury and Roy Williams still hasn’t found his hands (God bless him for trying, though). Hester is banged up with an ankle injury and Chicago is floundering losing 4 straight. This is a huge rivalry game, though and they always find a way to play the Packers tough regardless of who is under center. Unfortunately, given the Packers need to win to clinch home field throughout (unless somehow San Fran loses @ Seattle), with a pissed off Rodgers motivating his team, with McCarthy basically admitting he was out-couched and now having something to prove, and all the injuries to the Chicago Bears – and of course the fact that it’s a primetime game in Lambeau on Christmas with all eyes watching – the Packers will come out on fire to prove they are the real deal. I think this could get ugly early. Chicago will get a garbage score late but Pack win big. Also, look for Matt Flynn to play in the 4th qtr with the lead well in hand.
Green Bay Packers: 41
Chicago Bears: 17
Atlanta @ New Orleans (-6.5)
Atlanta is playing as well as anyone and still has an outside shot at the division crown. If they were to win the next 2 games and NO loses the next 2 games, Atlanta takes the NFC South and the 3 seed. Julio Jones and Roddy White are as hot as any 2 WR are for a team right now. Jones, specifically, is flat out dominating cornerbacks with his rare size/speed combo. He is starting to look a lot like Terrell Owens to me. Turner, all the while, has not looked that great. It’s scary to think what Atlanta can do in the playoffs if Turner gets going and starts to play well. His YPC have been below 3.5 in his last 4 games, 2 of which have come vs. terrible run defenses. New Orleans has been on fire, and they haven’t lost since October. How this team lost a game to each St. Louis and Tampa Bay is beyond me. Their passing defense is very suspect, but they can stop the run and they can out-score teams with ease. They are not a good road team, however and that could spell doom for them in the playoffs will they could have to go on the road in the divisional and (if they get there) championship round. This one is at home, though, and I expect them to win and cover here.
Atlanta Falcons: 28
New Orleans Saints: 38
For the remaining games: (remember the picks are ATS, not outright winners)
Houston @ Indianapolis (+6.5): Indianapolis
Denver @ Buffalo (+3): Denver
Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-7.5): Jacksonville
Arizona @ Cincinnati (-4.5): Arizona
Miami @ New England (-10): Miami
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-13.5): Baltimore
Minnesota @ Washington (-6.5): Minnesota
Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-7.5): Tampa Bay
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh (NO LINE): Pittsburgh
San Diego @ Detroit (-2.5): San Diego
San Francisco @ Seattle (+2.5): San Francisco
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